Communicating Risk for Sex Offenders: Risk Ratios for Static-2002R

Aim/Background. Actuarial risk tools are commonly used in corrections and forensic mental health settings. Given their widespread use, it is important that evaluators and decision-makers understand how scores on these tools relate to recidivism risk. Relative risk is one useful metric for communicating an offender's risk of reoffending. Methods. In the current study, risk ratios were computed for Static-2002R scores using 3 Canadian samples (N = 1,452 sex offenders). Results. Each increase in Static-2002R score was associated with a stable and consistent increase in relative risk (as measured by an odds ratio or hazard ratio of approximately 1.4) and this increase was stable across time. Hazard ratios from Cox regression were used to calculate risk ratios that can be reported for Static-2002R. Conclusion. We recommend that evaluators and treatment providers consider risk ratios as a useful, non-arbitrary metric for quantifying and communicating risk information.